Search results for "Bayesian [statistical analysis]"
showing 10 items of 299 documents
Multiscale variation in drought controlled historical forest fire activity in the boreal forests of eastern Fennoscandia
2017
Forest fires are a key disturbance in boreal forests, and characteristics of fire regimes are among the most important factors explaining the variation in forest structure and species composition. The occurrence of fire is connected with climate, but earlier, mostly local-scale studies in the northern European boreal forests have provided little insight into fire-climate relationship before the modern fire suppression period. Here, we compiled annually resolved fire history, temperature, and precipitation reconstructions from eastern Fennoscandia from the mid-16th century to the end of the 19th century, a period of strong human influence on fires. We used synchrony of fires over the network…
The role of loudness in detection of surprising events in music recordings
2009
The abrupt change of loudness is a salient event that is not always expected by a music listener. Therefore loudness is an important cue when seeking for events in a music stream that could violate human expectations. The concept of expectation and surprise in music has become recently the subject of extensive research, however mostly using symbolic data. The aim of this work is to investigate the circumstances when a change of sound intensity could be surprising for a listener. Then, using this knowledge, we aim to build a computational model that analyzes an audio stream and points to potential violations of human expectation. In order to check the quality of human prediction, an online (…
Natural induction: An objective bayesian approach
2009
The statistical analysis of a sample taken from a finite population is a classic problem for which no generally accepted objective Bayesian results seem to exist. Bayesian solutions to this problem may be very sensitive to the choice of the prior, and there is no consensus as to the appropriate prior to use.
Inferring Learning Strategies from Cultural Frequency Data
2015
Social learning has been identified as one of the fundamentals of culture and therefore the understanding of why and how individuals use social information presents one of the big questions in cultural evolution. To date much of the theoretical work on social learning has been done in isolation of data. Evolutionary models often provide important insight into which social learning strategies are expected to have evolved but cannot tell us which strategies human populations actually use. In this chapter we explore how much information about the underlying learning strategies can be extracted by analysing the temporal occurrence or usage patterns of different cultural variants in a population…
Population differentiation of the European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis) in Poland inferred by the analysis of mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA …
2013
We investigated the genetic diversity of Polish populations of the European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis) using complete sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and allelic variation at thirteen microsatellite loci. We collected data from 146 turtles from 28 locations covering most of the species’ range in Poland. Our results showed a low haplotype diversity and high levels of microsatellite diversity in all populations. We applied two Bayesian approaches using the multilocus data and determined relationships of mtDNA haplotypes by constructing a parsimony network. We observed relatively consistent results of the two Bayesian clustering methods and largely concordant differentiati…
Continental-scale patterns of pathogen prevalence: a case study on the corncrake
2014
Pathogen infections can represent a substantial threat to wild populations, especially those already limited in size. To determine how much variation in the pathogens observed among fragmented populations is caused by ecological factors, one needs to examine systems where host genetic diversity is consistent among the populations, thus controlling for any potentially confounding genetic effects. Here, we report geographic variation in haemosporidian infection among European populations of corncrake. This species now occurs in fragmented populations, but there is little genetic structure and equally high levels of genetic diversity among these populations. We observed a longitudinal gradient…
Expert system for predicting unstable angina based on Bayesian networks
2013
The use of computer-based clinical decision support (CDS) tools is growing significantly in recent years. These tools help reduce waiting lists, minimise patient risks and, at the same time, optimise the cost health resources. In this paper, we present a CDS application that predicts the probability of having unstable angina based on clinical data. Due to the characteristics of the variables (mostly binary) a Bayesian network model was chosen to support the system. Bayesian-network model was constructed using a population of 1164 patients, and subsequently was validated with a population of 103 patients. The validation results, with a negative predictive value (NPV) of 91%, demonstrate its …
Application of a Bayesian Spatiotemporal Surveillance Method to NYC Syndromic Data
2014
Incorporating prior knowledge (e.g., the spatial distribution of zip codes and background population effects) into a model using Bayesian methods could potentially improve outbreak detection. We adapted a previously described Bayesian model-based spatiotemporal surveillance technique to daily respiratory syndrome counts in NYC Emergency Department data in 2009, the year of the H1N1 influenza pandemic. Citywide, 56 alarms were produced across 15 zip codes, all during days of elevated respiratory visits. Future work includes evaluating our choice of baseline length, considering other alarm thresholds, and conducting a formal evaluation of the method across five syndromes in NYC.
The Bayesian Pursuit Algorithm: A New Family of Estimator Learning Automata
2011
Published version of a chapter in the book: Modern Approaches in Applied Intelligence. Also available from the publisher at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-21827-9_53 The fastest Learning Automata (LA) algorithms currently available come from the family of estimator algorithms. The Pursuit algorithm (PST), a pioneering scheme in the estimator family, obtains its superior learning speed by using Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimates to pursue the action currently perceived as being optimal. Recently, a Bayesian LA (BLA) was introduced, and empirical results that demonstrated its advantages over established top performers, including the PST scheme, were reported. The BLA scheme is inherently …
Causality-based Social Media Analysis for Normal Users Credibility Assessment in a Political Crisis
2019
Information trustworthiness assessment on political social media discussions is crucial to maintain the order of society, especially during emergent situations. The polarity nature of political topics and the echo chamber effect by social media platforms allow for a deceptive and a dividing environment. During a political crisis, a vast amount of information is being propagated on social media, that leads up to a high level of polarization and deception by the beneficial parties. The traditional approaches to tackling misinformation on social media usually lack a comprehensive problem definition due to its complication. This paper proposes a probabilistic graphical model as a theoretical vi…